2,951 customers (2,592 cross sell eligible). $218M AUM. $4.70M Year 1 revenue, $7.13M Year 2. Fair value $3.8M–$5.7M (based on current state). A critical piece of the Solo OS.
Carry is a Solo 401k platform for solopreneurs. 2,592 cross sell eligible customers (of 2,676 total), $218M AUM, SEC registered BD/RIA.
Solo 401k platform. Founded by Ankur Nagpal. Selling the 401k management business separately from the content/marketing business.
Solo OS for solopreneurs. S Corp, tax, bookkeeping, payroll, healthcare. $49M raised. Missing retirement to complete the stack (4 of 6).
2,951
solopreneurs
$218M
AUM
$4.70M
Y1 acquisition rev
$5M
target price
$2.7M confirmed today from three streams. With the recommended pricing strategy ($99 Y1 promo for 2,592 eligible of 2,951 total customers, $349 Lettuce Complete) and multi-tier churn model, Year 1 revenue reaches $4.70M. Year 2 surges to $7.13M as Complete pricing kicks in.
$153K/mo MRR. Declining 3 months. NRR 66%. ARPU fell from $79 to $24 after June 2025 price cut.
$70K/mo confirmed (SOTU). Includes $62K/mo DW interest share + $8K/mo transaction and advisory fees.
| Stream | Annual |
|---|---|
| Subscription Revenue (Y1) Model | $3.32M/yr |
| Carry customers (2,592 eligible at $29 to $99/mo) Model | $1.33M/yr |
| Lettuce Pro customers (600 at $299 to $349/mo) Model | $2.03M/yr |
| BD/RIA Year 1 SotU + Model | $0.80M/yr |
| Confirmed ($70K/mo) SotU | $840K/yr |
| Retained Carry AUM growth + compounding Model | $1.77M/yr |
| Cross sell AUM growth (Lettuce → 401k) Model | $52K/yr |
| Advisory fee (~$15K, conservative) ADV | $15K/yr |
| Total Year 1 Acquisition Revenue | $4.70M |
Key insight: Carry's subscription is declining, but the real value is $218M in custodied AUM (89% from deposits).
Ankur is exiting entirely. Selling the marketing and 401k businesses to different buyers.
Media companies want the content business (NerdWallet, Bankrate). Fintechs want the 401k management. Selling separately lets Ankur get top dollar from each pool.
$5M
target
MRR declining 3 months straight. Content funnel being sold separately removes the growth engine. SaaS multiples compressed from 15x to 5x. A founder splitting his company to sell is a founder ready to negotiate.
| Lens | Range | |
|---|---|---|
| SaaS Multiple (2.5x to 5x ARR) | On $1.84M ARR | $4.6M to $9.2M |
| RIA Multiple (2% to 3% of AUM) | On $218M AUM | $4.4M to $6.6M |
| Declining MRR discount | NRR 66%, 3mo decline | Favors lower end |
| Content funnel removed | Growth engine gone | Further discount |
| Target Price | $5M |
4 of 6 Solo OS verticals covered, emerging as the leader in the race. Carry fills the last gap.
| Company | Funding | Retirement | Healthcare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lettuce | $49M | ✓ (Carry) | ✓ (BeSolo) |
| Collective | $78.5M | ✗ | ✗ |
| Formations | $11.5M | ✓ | ✓ |
| Company | Funding | Threat Level |
|---|---|---|
| Intuit | Public ($14.4B rev) | Critical |
| Pilot | $150M+ | High |
| Bench | $113M | Medium |
| FlyFin AI | $8M | Medium |
Completes the Solo OS: no one else offers S Corp + tax + banking + bookkeeping + healthcare + retirement in one place
Switching costs go up: moving a 401k is painful. Once retirement is on the platform, customers stay
Better data for AI: retirement data + tax + income data gives the most complete picture of a solopreneur's finances
Proactive tax moves: tell a customer in November to put $X into Solo 401k before Dec 31 to save $Y in taxes
Revenue that compounds without new customers. The December Rush adds a repeatable annual growth engine.
BD/RIA fees compound with AUM growth. Existing accounts contribute ~$54K/yr on average ($29K first year for new accounts), markets grow balances, fee revenue goes up. No new sales effort required.
Average account balance is ~$50K, largest is $4.2M. Even when business slows, people do not empty their retirement account. That money sits on the platform for decades.
The December Rush: after Dec 22, Carry is the only provider accepting new Solo 401k applications. 355 estimated annual lock ins at zero CAC.
December Rush Revenue Per Cohort (3yr)
Y1 (355 locked)
Y2 (step up + churn)
Y3 (ongoing churn)
BD/RIA: 0.34% interest + 0.20% advisory + $28/acct/yr mgmt. 40% standalone churn, 8% bundle churn, 0% for 24+ month customers.
EV Add Per Cohort
$2.1M to $2.9M
6 to 8x on avg annual revenue (Y2/Y3). $932K over 3 years. AUM compounds to $25M per cohort by Y3.
Jan 2027 advisory fee event: Potentially up to 76% of managed accountsVerification in ProgressWe are in the process of verifying the robo vs. self directed account split and June 2025 to Jan 2026 churn data to accurately size this risk level. are grandfathered at 0% advisory fee until Jan 2027. When that expires, advisory fee revenue jumps from ~$15K/yr to potentially $410K/yr. This is a risk (churn) and an opportunity (27x fee increase) that needs validation.
If Lettuce passes, a competitor buys Carry. The partnership ends. The Solo OS stays incomplete.
A rival completes their solopreneur suite first. Lettuce stays at 4 of 6.
Locked behind a competitor's paywall. Switching costs make them nearly unreachable.
Recurring revenue reinvested against Lettuce. Funds a stronger Collective.
355 new customers/yr at zero CAC go to a competitor. Compounding head start.
Buying an SEC registered RIA is not like buying a SaaS product. The compliance costs are real. But at $3.8M–$5.7M fair value (based on current 2,951 subs at $29/mo + $218M AUM), the math works.
Year 1 Operating Cost| Category | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Personnel (5 retained staff) | $883K |
| Compliance / regulatory / infra | $173K |
| AML/CFT setup (Y1) | $25K |
| Migration churn (7.5%, one time Y1) | $77K |
| Year 1 Operating Cost | $1.16M |
Section 37.2 requires written consent. If DW refuses, $0.80M/yr BD/RIA revenue at risk.
200bps Fed cut = 40 to 50% drop in DW interest income. $743K/yr could fall to $370K.
Potentially up to 76% of accountsVerification in ProgressWe are in the process of verifying the robo vs. self directed account split and June 2025 to Jan 2026 churn data to accurately size this risk level. at 0% fee. Expect 250 to 505 customer losses ($180K to $360K/yr) when fees activate.
6 to 12 months. Estimated ~5 retained engineers without separate budget.
5 to 10% customer loss during transition. $90K to $180K/yr revenue impact.
Legal duty to act in customers' best interests. Investment losses invite lawsuits.
Net Year 1 at midpoint ($4.7M): Revenue $4.70M minus $1.16M Y1 cost (5 person team + compliance + AML setup + migration churn) = $3.54M net. Payback in approximately 16 months at midpoint. Even with risk adjustments, this is a strong return profile.
Completes Solo OS. $4.70M Y1 revenue. ~16 month payback at midpoint.
$5M price. $1.16M/yr cost. SEC overhead. DW consent risk.
No capital outlay, no regulatory burden.
Carry sells to competitor — partnership breaks. Solo OS stays at 4 of 6. Lose time sourcing alternatives. Forfeit competitive edge.
Full control, custom built. No external acquisition risks.
2–3 years, $1M–$3M dev cost. Zero AUM day one, RIA from scratch. Competitor buys Carry meanwhile.
Manageable risk profile with substantial upside.